Thunderbolts*, the thirty-sixth Marvel movie in the MCU, took in an estimated $76 million opening weekend. That places it on the low end of MCU openings, though on the high end of where estimates had placed it pre-opening. So is the MCU back??? It’s a qualified “maybe,” folks, true to the asterisk in the title.
Starring Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, David Harbour, Julia Louis-Dreyfus and more, the movie is a mash-up of depressed anti-heroes all taking on one of their own… And leading into yet another franchise for Disney/Marvel (no spoilers here), thanks to that mysterious asterisk. Perhaps Disney would have been better to not play coy with that asterisk, as while the box office is good for what it is — I certainly would not turn down $76 million — it’s also pointing to a new ceiling for Marvel movies.
That $76 million puts it just barely above Ant-Man and the Wasp ($75.8 million) and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75.4 million); and below Black Widow ($80 million). Given Thunderbolts* is closest to a direct sequel to Black Widow, albeit without Scarlett Johansson’s star power, that doesn’t necessarily point to a potential, stealth Black Widow 3.
Also, per the asterisk nature of Thunderbolts*, it’s worth noting that Black Widow was released simultaneously in theaters and on “Disney Premiere Access,” making $30 million in homes on top of its $80 million in theaters.
The opening for Thunderbolts* is well below Captain America: Brave New World, which opened to $88.8 million this past February, and ended grossing a slight $200.2 million domestically, and not even breaking $500 million worldwide.
While Thunderbolts* has better reviews and word of mouth versus Brave New World, it’s also entering a packed marketplace that includes Sinners, on a heater in its third weekend, with no signs of stopping. On May 16, Final Destination: Bloodlines takes over Thunderbolts* IMAX screens, with Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning both hitting on May 23. Point being, even with good word of mouth, there’s a lot coming out that indicates Thunderbolts* may not have the legs it would normally have with a less crowded theatrical schedule.
We’ll have a better idea of where the MCU sits when Fantastic Four: First Steps hits in July, but it’s starting to feel like successes such as Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3, which opened to $118.4 million and ended with $359 million domestically, or Deadpool & Wolverine, which opened to $211.4 million to finish with $636.4 million domestically (and $1.338 billion worldwide) are outliers.
The issue here is return on investment for Disney, which doesn’t necessarily matter for anyone who isn’t Bob Iger, and/or doesn’t own Disney stock. But if Brave New World ends with $414.9 million total on a reported $180 million budget (though some reports peg it at $380 million, which doesn’t even include marketing costs), and Thunderbolts* ends up anywhere in the same area (it also is reported to be budgeted at $180 million, plus $100 million in marketing, though is likely more)… Well, you can’t spend nearly $400 million and “only” make just north of $400 million.
Will Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars buck the trend to make a gazillion dollars? It’s likely, given Disney is taking no chances, packing both movies with essentially every actor in Hollywood. But if that strategy works and everything else doesn’t… Guess what Marvel makes more of, and what they make less of, after that? If the MCU movies are opening to less than $100 million, and not making over a billion dollars worldwide — both insane numbers, but what is generally considered the standard for blockbusters in the modern age — then Disney cannot justify plunking down that much money for a team of loser anti-heroes.
It’s opening weekend, so before we cry that the sky is falling, we’ll see how Thunderbolts* does over the rest of the summer (or at least until it debuts on streaming). And once Fantastic Four hits, we’ll have a better idea about the future ceiling for non-Avengers movies in the MCU. But lighting certainly hasn’t struck here. No asterisk necessary.
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